Impact Evaluation of the Light Rail Transit (LRT) Line 2

Description

The Light Rail Transit Line 2 (“LRT2”) Project is a 13.8-km line with 11 stations running in the east- west direction from Santolan, Pasig up to Claro M. Recto Avenue in Manila. Its objective is to provide an alternative transport system that is safe, comfortable, efficient and affordable. Line 2 was originally scheduled to be operational first quarter of Year 2001. Santolan to Cubao operations began third quarter of 2003, Cubao to Recto services, first quarter of 2004.

This LRT2 Project impact evaluation study aimed to:

1. Ascertain whether the project appraisal assumptions were met and the intended project benefits were realized;

2. Provide lessons learned during project implementation and operation and maintenance; and

3. Capture any unintended benefits which can be attributable to the project.

The evaluation was based on the retrofitted Theory of Change, Updated Logical Framework, and Evaluation Operational Framework tying six key evaluation questions with effectiveness, efficiency, impact, sustainability and relevance criteria. The Integrated Transport System Approach provides a wholistic framework for the evaluation. Baseline-Constrained Evaluation Strategies were developed to address data limitations.

The household survey covered 807 samples in 41 barangays in project and non-project areas. Key Informant Interviews involved 209 informants in six implementing agencies. Ten Focus Group Discussion sessions were completed. The Rail Rider Survey (RRS) covered 1,591 respondents in 11 stations. A perception survey formed part of the RRS. Traffic Count was done in two major intersections. The Vehicle Operating Cost Survey gathered data on fuel and other costs. Travel Time Simulation, Station Observation and Profiling, and on-line survey were also used for data collection.

Quantitative data analysis tools included Single Difference Analysis/ Descriptive Statistics and Difference-in-Differences Analysis which estimated project net impact by comparing changes in outcomes before and after the project and similar outcomes in the non-project area. Propensity Score Matching (PSM) enhanced the comparability of the samples in the project and non-project areas by matching groups using propensity scores. Case studies complemented quantitative data.